Tare da "Lokacin Rahoton Shekara-shekara" yana kusan zuwa ƙarshe a kan Afrilu 30, A-share ya jera kamfanoni ba da son rai ba ko kuma cikin ƙin yarda da bayar da rahotannin shekara-shekara na 2021.Don masana'antar photovoltaic, 2021 ya isa a rubuta shi a cikin tarihin photovoltaics, saboda gasa a cikin masana'antar masana'antu ya fara shiga matakin farin-zafi a cikin 2021. Gabaɗaya, sarkar masana'antar PV ta ƙunshi sassa masu mahimmanci kamar silicon, silicon. wafers, sel da kayayyaki, da sassan biyu kamar kayan taimako na PV da kayan aikin PV.
An gane "grid parity" don samar da wutar lantarki na photovoltaic wanda aka bi shi fiye da shekaru goma a tashar wutar lantarki ta tashar wutar lantarki, wanda hakan ya ba da ƙarin buƙatun buƙatun don farashin sarkar masana'antar hoto.
A cikin sashin siliki na sarkar masana'antu a sama, akwai babban buƙatu don ikon kore saboda tsaka tsaki na carbon, yin farashin silicon wanda aka faɗaɗa a cikin mafi saurin sauri da sauri, don haka yana haifar da babban tasiri ga asalin ribar sarkar masana'antar. .
A cikin sashin wafer na siliki, sabon ƙarfin silikon wafers irin su Shangji Automation yana ƙalubalantar masana'antar wafer silicon na gargajiya;a cikin sashin tantanin halitta, nau'in nau'in N-nau'in sun fara maye gurbin ƙwayoyin nau'in P.
Duk waɗannan abubuwan haɗin gwiwa na iya sa masu saka hannun jari su ji ruɗani.Amma a ƙarshen rahotanni na shekara-shekara, za mu iya ganin hangen nesa na riba da asarar kowane kamfani na PV ta hanyar bayanan kuɗi.
Wannan sakon zai sake nazarin sakamakon shekara-shekara na yawancin kamfanonin PV kuma ya rushe ainihin bayanan kuɗi zuwa sassa daban-daban na sarkar masana'antu a ƙoƙarin amsa tambayoyi biyu masu zuwa:
1. Wadanne sassan sarkar masana'antar PV suka sami riba a cikin 2021?
2. Ta yaya za a rarraba ribar sarkar masana'antar PV a nan gaba?Wadanne sassan ne suka dace da shimfidawa?
Babban riba na silicon yana haɓaka haɓakar wafers na silicon, amma sel sun ga jinkirin kasuwanci
A cikin manyan sassan sarkar masana'antar PV, mun zaɓi kamfanonin PV da aka jera tare da bayyana bayanan kuɗi don sassan kasuwanci na silicon - wafer - cell - module, kuma mun kwatanta kudaden shiga da ma'auni mai girma na sassan kasuwanci daban-daban na kowane kamfani. , ta yadda za a nuna a sarari sauye-sauye na riba na kowane bangare na sarkar masana'antar PV.
Adadin karuwar kudaden shiga na manyan sassan sarkar masana'antar PV ya fi yawan ci gaban masana'antu.Dangane da bayanan CPIA, sabon ƙarfin PV na duniya da aka shigar ya kasance kusan 170GW a cikin 2021, haɓakar 23% kowace shekara, yayin da karuwar kudaden shiga na silicon/wafer/cell/module ya kasance 171.2%/70.4%/62.8% /40.5% bi da bi, a cikin raguwar yanayi.
Daga hangen babban gefe, matsakaicin farashin siyar da siliki ya tashi daga 78,900/ton a cikin 2020 zuwa 193,000/ton a 2021. Amfana daga gagarumin hauhawar farashin, babban gefen silicon ya karu sosai daga 30.36% a 2020 zuwa 64.12% a cikin 2020. 2021.
Bangaren wafer ya nuna juriya mai ƙarfi, tare da babban ragi ya rage a kusan 24% a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, duk da hauhawar farashin silicon.Akwai manyan dalilai guda biyu na barga mai girma na ɓangaren wafer: Na farko, wafer yana cikin matsayi mai ƙarfi a cikin sarkar masana'antu kuma yana da ƙarfin ciniki mai ƙarfi akan masana'antun tantanin halitta na ƙasa, wanda zai iya canza yawancin matsa lamba.Na biyu, Zhonghuan Semiconductor, daya daga cikin muhimmin bangaren da ake fitarwa na masana'antun kera wafer na siliki, ya samu matukar inganta ribarsa bayan da aka kammala yin gyare-gyare da inganta nau'ikan wafers na silicon guda 210, don haka ya taka rawa wajen daidaita darajar wannan bangare.
Tantanin halitta da tsarin su ne ainihin wanda aka azabtar da hauhawar farashin siliki na yanzu.Babban gefen tantanin halitta ya ragu daga 14.47% zuwa 7.46%, yayin da babban jigon tsarin ya ragu daga 17.24% zuwa 12.86%.
Dalilin da ya sa mafi kyawun aiki na babban ɓangaren ɓangaren module idan aka kwatanta da sashin tantanin halitta shi ne cewa manyan kamfanonin ƙirar duk kamfanoni ne masu haɗaka kuma ba su da matsakaici don samun bambanci, don haka sun fi tsayayya da matsa lamba.Aikosolar, Tongwei da sauran kamfanonin tantanin halitta suna buƙatar siyan wafern siliki daga wasu kamfanoni, don haka ribar ribarsu a bayyane take.
A ƙarshe, daga babban riba (aiki samun kudin shiga * babban gefe) canje-canje, ratawar rabo tsakanin sassa daban-daban na sarkar masana'antar hotovoltaic ya fi bayyane.
A shekarar 2021,Babban riba na sashin silicon ya karu da kusan 472%, yayin da babbar riba ta bangaren tantanin halitta ta ragu da kashi 16.13%.
Bugu da ƙari, za mu iya ganin cewa ko da yake babban gefen ɓangaren wafer bai canza ba, babban riba ya karu da kusan 70%.A zahiri, idan muka kalle shi daga hangen nesa, siliki wafers a zahiri suna amfana daga hauhawar farashin siliki.
Hanyoyin kayan taimako na Photovoltaic sun lalace, amma masu siyar da kayan aiki suna da ƙarfi
Mun yi amfani da wannan hanyar a cikin kayan taimako da kayan aiki na sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic.A cikin kamfanonin photovoltaic da aka jera, mun zaɓi abubuwan da suka dace, kuma mun bincika yanayin riba na sassan da suka dace.
Kowane kamfani ya ga raguwa a babban juzu'in ɓangaren kayan taimako na hotovoltaic, amma duk na iya samun riba.Gabaɗaya, gilashin PV da masu juyawa sun sha wahala daga haɓaka kudaden shiga ba tare da ƙara yawan riba ba, yayin da ƙimar ci gaban ribar fim ɗin PV ya fi kyau.
Bayanan kudi na kowane mai siyar da kayan aiki yana da ƙarfi sosai a ɓangaren kayan aikin PV.Dangane da babban gefe, babban ma'aunin nauyi na kowane mai siyar da kayan aiki ya karu daga 33.98% a cikin 2020 zuwa 34.54% a cikin 2021, kusan rikice-rikice daban-daban ba ya shafa a babban sashin PV.Dangane da kudaden shiga, yawan kudin da ake samu na aiki na masu siyar da kayan aiki guda takwas gaba daya shima ya karu da kashi 40%.
Gabaɗaya aikin sarkar masana'antar PV kusa da haɓakar siliki da ribar sashin wafer yana da kyau sosai a cikin 2021, yayin da tantanin halitta da sashin ƙirar ke ƙarƙashin ƙaƙƙarfan buƙatun farashin tashar wutar lantarki, don haka rage riba.
Kayayyakin kayan taimako na Photovoltaic kamar su inverters, fim ɗin hoto, da gilashin hoto ana yin niyya ne ga sarƙoƙin masana'antar ƙasa abokan ciniki, don haka riba a cikin 2021 ya shafi digiri daban-daban.
Wadanne canje-canje za su faru ga masana'antar PV a nan gaba?
Farashin siliki na Skyrocketed shine babban dalilin canje-canje a cikin tsarin rarraba riba na sarkar masana'antar PV a cikin 2021. Don haka, yaushe farashin siliki zai faɗi a nan gaba kuma menene canje-canjen zai faru a cikin sarkar masana'antar PV bayan raguwar ta zama abin da aka fi mayar da hankali. hankalin masu zuba jari.
1. Hukuncin farashin Silicon: Matsakaicin farashin ya kasance mai girma a cikin 2022, kuma yana farawa a cikin 2023.
Dangane da bayanan ZJSC, ƙarfin tasirin silicon na duniya a cikin 2022 shine kusan tan 840,000, wanda shine kusan haɓakar 50% na shekara-shekara kuma yana iya tallafawa kusan 294GW na buƙatun silicon wafer.Idan muka yi la'akari da damar kasafi rabo na 1.2, ingantacciyar ƙarfin silicon na ton 840,000 a cikin 2022 na iya saduwa da kusan 245GW na ƙarfin PV da aka shigar.
2. Ana sa ran sashin wafer na Silicon zai fara yakin farashin a 2023-2024.
Kamar yadda muka sani daga bita na baya na 2021, kamfanonin wafer silicon suna da gaske suna amfana daga wannan hauhawar farashin siliki.Da zarar farashin siliki ya ragu a nan gaba, kamfanonin wafer ba makawa za su rage farashin wafer saboda matsin lamba daga takwarorinsu da ɓangarorin da ke ƙasa, kuma ko da babban giɓi ya kasance iri ɗaya ko haɓaka, babban riba a kowane GW zai ragu.
3. Sel da modules za su murmure daga mawuyacin hali a cikin 2023.
Yayin da babban "wanda aka azabtar" na halin yanzu na farashin siliki ya karu, kamfanonin tantanin halitta da na'urori sun yi shiru suna ɗaukar farashin duk ma'aunin sarkar masana'antu babu shakka mafi yawan fatan cewa farashin silicon ya faɗi.
Yanayin gaba ɗaya na sarkar masana'antar PV a cikin 2022 zai yi kama da na 2021, kuma lokacin da aka fitar da ƙarfin silicon gabaɗaya a cikin 2023, sassan silicon da wafer za su iya fuskantar yaƙin farashi, yayin da ribar tsarin ƙasa da tantanin halitta. sassan zasu fara karba.Sabili da haka, tantanin halitta, module da kamfanonin haɗin kai a cikin sarkar masana'antar PV na yanzu za su fi dacewa da hankali.
Lokacin aikawa: Juni-10-2022